Tuesday, October 5, 2010

Il Mercato...

First off.. today we had some quick trades from Grand Slam..

Yesterday got long JNPR calls, today sold'em for a 30% gain...bot'em for $3.95...sold'em for $5.45...across 14 contracts $1,800 this is in one day....sexy

Also got out of RIG calls for a small but decent profit...bought them for $6.10 sold'em for $6.65...across 9 contracts that's $495...not shabby for about 1 week holding

I am still holding TSL...though at some point I had similar action as that JNPR trade. It is currently at a minor loss...but I have limited confidence in it unless something major heats up on solar...nonetheless I have a few more weeks and theta isn't a factor yet...so I hold... Some technical breakdowns have occurred, but not the money management breaks...so I hold.

I know I just said "so I hold" twice...but this is important. I have seen many positions get better if I hold through one of the 2 loss prevention programs...some I have sold prior to money management stops being violated (i.e. my defined max risk not being triggered) due to technical breaks...others i have sold due to money management but without technical breaks...in this case I should have managed position size better...

In any case, TSL is a hold right now it has found some support at $28ish and my money management rules have not been triggered yet...its just painful knowing I could have taken a nice profit on this just last week...I was hoping TSL was going to make up for MCP...

Anyway TSL has retested on the daily time frame and it is back above the 13hr EMA...also found support at the 20 period SMA for the 4 hr chart...

As for the market. Bullish day, bullish internals, volume. Slight uptrend in VIX was crushed today with lower low and lower closing low...However, caution is warranted as a major short squeeze is on...witness the commercial hedger on the NDX....Also it appears that rallying in the off season (vis-a-vis earnings) means the on-season will fizzle.

Regardless, a breakout like today has to be respected. So near-term...mooo...at least until earnings season or even election day.

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