Trade: Short BAC...winner

21-OCT-10:

I entered BAC on Tuesday based on a retest I had been waiting for since the first breakdown. I also didn't want to get in ahead of earnings on BAC...

Last Thursday BAC broke down really hard on the hourly chart...astute traders could have gotten in Friday morning as a retest occured at the open...that was the really easy money.

However, BAC was reporting on Tuesday. I wanted to be patient and wait for the indicators to line up and I was actually hoping it would happen after earnings report...well it did retest into earnings on Monday afternoon. Lucky for me it kept having a little bit of strength into Tuesday afternoon.

Post earnings enthusiasm wasn't that great as volume wasn't strong. This is a good case of interpreting multiple timeframes to my advantage. First, the overall picture on the daily and hourly charts had confirmed bearish...so any "bullish" behavior was an opportunity to get short.

The 11 AM hour showed a Doji candle...followed by a decent red bar for 12PM...Also, the DMI kiss was nearly in effect...So I watched the 15 minute chart unfold and I looked to my trusty 13 EMA on that timeframe. It closed under it right around 12:45PM I decided to take the trade figuring risk reward was decent.

I took the trade when BAC was trading at around $12.30 the top of the day was put in at $12.45...15 cents risk...not bad.

I also looked at the options chart for the Nov $14 put...it was retesting on the bullish side.

Then I picked a target figuring the recent low of $11.74 was a decent place for this baby to go if it were to go down. So I had about $0.15 risk and $0.55 reward.

This was a very easy trade to place. I emailed Bob Lang about it and he said it wasn't good for him...overcoming that comment was probably the hardest part of the trade.

Anyway I fired off 29 contracts of Nov $14 puts for $1.78 each...total outlay $5162

I took profits later that same day as my target of $11.74 was reached I sold 9 contracts for $2.30...$2070

Today I sold 8 more around the accounts for $2.60...gained another $2080

I have 12 contracts still riding the wave here.

Right I have recovered all but $1012...which means the 12 remaining contracts have a cost basis of $0.84.

Currently they are trading at around $2.65...which makes the position worth $3180..overall this is a 41% winner thus far. In only a few days.

On $14 puts that means I can watch BAC come all the way back to $13.15 with comfort knowing that I will not loose one dime...

It just so happens there is a tremendous amount of chart resistance at $13...so at the very least I think I make $180

But at the very most I make quite a bit more.

My current target for BAC is right around $11. I used Fib extensions to get me that target since no time frame is now helpful..it is outside all the bands on all the charts and there is no chart support anymore. The 13 EMA on all timeframes is at or below $12 further making these worth something like $2.

BAC could very well be a shitstorm given the foreclosure/trustee loan documentation bullshit. During their conference call they said all was hunky dory with their foreclosure process. Then later that afternoon PIMCO, the NY Fed, Blackrock, and a few other decided to call their bluff and sue their asses for $47 billion in toilet paper they claim BAC has screwed the pooch on.

That is really why I have made some money on this...BAC is like BP during the early days of the oil spill...I think the easy money has been made but more money may still be there for the taking...

Those who have not yet gotten on board...tread carefully and pick decent strikes...and be patient for a retest.

Charts:

1hr:

15 min:

Nov $14 Put Hourly chart:

4Hr BAC chart (Look at the volume here):

Trades: Long ABT loser... and Short CTXS

21-OCT-10:
OK so ABT did not work out as a winner. Despite some technical breakdowns, I hadn't hit my risk tolerance level in this so I wanted to see the earnings reaction.

The day of earnings announcement it opened down really big and so I held. This turned out to be the right thing to do because it was an overreaction to a decent report. In any case, this is one position where I didn't have autostops on and I actually have ceased to have those in place since I am on top of things most of the time anyway.

Then again my account access also prevented me from panicking on this position. Never transfer brokers with open positions on and not having the usernames and passwords to all the accounts you manages...that's the lesson of the day.

Anyway, I couldn't get into most the accounts to even get rid of this if I wanted to. I spent most of the day recovering passwords and having a shared office is really starting to fuck things up with me...as I can't just pick up the phone and yell at TD Ameritrade when this type of shit hits the fan.

In any case I got rid of the ABT in most of the accounts (still holding in the taxable as this is the one that is being transfered at this juncture).

Sold 16 contracts today for about $1.00. Sold 12 yesterday for 0.90.
$2,200 loss...SHIZEN

And I still haven't got rid of the ones in the taxable account.

13-OCT-10:
So as part of my scans and needing a short I decided to work on CTXS as a short today. And ABT retested early this morning from yesterday's breakout...so I decided that was a good long to put on.

Unfortunately, I was a bit overzealous on both these plays. I chased ABT and was early on CTXS.

Across all accounts I have the following:

CTXS
8 contracts of Nov $65 Puts for $9 each.

This is twice the normal position size but it is the only short I have on vs the other longs...and I am quite confident in CTXS going down down down...In the daily chart there is a gap back in July post earnings that should get filled on this fresh new downtrend. I see it going to $49 but I don't know if that happens tomorrow or the next day (or at all really).

These are 70 delta, plenty of time for that to go higher. I also chose these due to the high open interest.

ABT
38 contracts of Nov $52.50 Calls for $1.75 each...

I chased these a bit as I tried to get filled at 1.60 then at 1.65 and it kept going...until of course a little pull back happened...but nonetheless I see ABT going to $55ish and we should get a good 60% gain on these calls if that happens.
These are a 60 delta but we have lots of time so I decided it was worth the risk. I also chose these due to the high open interest.

Charts:
CTXS

Daily:

HR:

ABT
Daily:

HR:

Trade: Long ATPG

14-OCT-10
Took advantage of the DMI kiss/CCI/%R retest all on the hourly chart...The daily also has %R retest going on.

Decided to pick up ATPG...this came onto the radar recently as it broke out big time over the last few days on big volume.

Anyway, I am a bit hesitant on longs now since many indicators are showing up as overbought/overly bullish...However this is a strong trend and I am hoping to be proven right here.

Got into 21 Nov $14 calls at a price of $2.75 each.

Charts later..

Trade: Long CHKP...winner

12-OCT-10:
Get out of CHKP calls at a price of $3.50...it continues to rally but I employed the discipline of getting out at at least 30% gain...I need to do this more often.

Since I picked these up for $2.35 each and we had 22 accross the accounts..that's a cool $2,530 in profits.

Today I am looking at TSL and it is rallying hard and I would have once more been green on that trade...but the key is that I was already green on that trade and I didn't do what I did today with CHKP...just get out...move onto another opportunity...There is no shortage of opportunities...and that's the key to the trader's mindset.

Get out when the going is good.

Then find another party to join.

Here is hoping that CHKP is the first in a long string of a new mindset for me.

7-OCT-10:
First off...Got orders to enter FCX today from Headley in the Sniper service.

BOT 9 contracts of OCT $85 calls for $6.65 each..this was a good entry point as it was retesting.

Some would say going long today would be a silly thing to do...with NFP coming out tomorrow and all that risk out there...and all the overbought conditions and resistance overhead etc.

Speaking of which...After NFP comes out tomorrow morning...I will have my own persepective on the jobs situation and I can truly say that it is unique in that nobody else talks about jobs like I will tomorrow.

I said fuck you there are really strong trends out there and many of them are worth a few points and that's all I am looking for now.

New philosophy is that I want only about 30% gains on these options...most of the time that is a very small move in the stocks like 3% or maybe 5%...depending on delta etc.

Anyway last night I was back onto the scans (hadn't done that in a while)...so in scanning I now go over a few scans...I still go over the daily scans for breakout and retest candidates based on accel bands and %R...then I do a few high volume scans as well.

Anyway, in digging I then look at things that are jiving on daily and hourly time horizons.

Enter CHKP...I liked the chart in that it had broken out was in a strong uptrend...and had a decent retest on the hourly chart already...(DMI kiss was in effect).

So this Am I waited to see the action on the 15 minute chart and my final arbiter is the 13 EMA...I like to see a close over the EMA then a confirmation close above that bar's high. We sort of got that with the last bar of yesterday closing right on the EMA...then confirmation this morning at the open. I waited for that fat green bar to pull the trigger.

BOT 22 contracts of NOV $36 Calls for $2.35...looking to exit at $3.05 ish

Charts:

Hourly:

15 Minute:

Daily:

Trade: Long TSL...loser

8-OCT-10:
A fat finger and a little help from the market reduced the overall loss on this trade. I was placing limit orders in to sell at $4 thinking the morning gap would sustain itself into a rally where I can make a decent buck on this...well it triggered a market order at $3.60...In any case I got out of some at $2.70 and some others at $2.80...

Overall total loss was $750...this doesn't sound so bad except when you think that I at one time was looking at $2250 in profits....

This was a shitty trade in only the fact that I did not get out when the going was good...

I keep saying that I learn this lesson, but it is clear that I have not yet learned this lesson.

Getting out of a good trade is an extremely difficult thing to do I have to unlearn the "let your profits run" shit that is in my head.

That discipline is something I will be employing moving forward by simply taking the profit at 30%....if you think about it most of my positions wind up being about $6000 in size (accross all the accounts)...a 30% profit is $1800...that is well within my realm of happiness...If I can keep my losses to 15% this puts me at a nice 2 for 1 risk/reward scenario on every trade...I can make that better by taking 10% losses...but volatility would create many more loosers for me with such a tight loss point.

In any case, regardless of the situation (except when its Headley and Lang calling the shots)...I will be taking 30% profits on my trades.

I must do this. I simply MUST DO THIS.

30-SEP-10:
Yesterday TSL took another step towards the sun and broke out pretty heftily. It then proceeded to fade into the close. The last hour presented a %R retest. Now on the hourly this can cut both ways. You can get lucky and %R retest holds, or you can watch as CCI painfully gets retested...or DMI or whatever.

MCP was one of those situations. I got in on CCI retest thinking I was high and mighty and boom got pasted.

Anyway enough MCP. TSL is a better trade already...in good TSL fashion it promptly gaped up this morning and has been hovering at these heights since.

The retest on %R has held ($28.84), this actually happened outside the hourly bands...a good trait for any retest. Today it retested again towards the 13 hour EMA...That green line just keep supporting or dissing stocks I love it.

Across all accounts I have 18 contracts of the October $26 calls for $3.20 each.

Let's hope this works out better than MCP..I can make up for MCP with a $2 appreciation in this one...that's like cheesecake for TSL.

Charts:
4hr

1hr

Trade: Long F...winner

30-SEP-10:
I put in a trade trigger during my time in Paris for this to get out at $1.70...this was because these were weeklies and I didn't want to be in them for a long time and the market has been choppy.

Across all the accounts this was about $1,000 winner as the trigger was fired on the 21st of September...not bad for 5 days.

Not much per account but overall it was a good trade.

Chart:
Hourly

16-SEP-10:
In my scans today I picked up a high volume rise in F...The uniqueness of this move is seen on the hourly (and even the daily) chart. The volume was big today in Ford and the bollingers on the hourly chart had gotten really tight and in sinc with the accel bands etc...so I watched the 15 minute chart after the breakout to see if I could get a retest to get in. I watched it come towards the 13 EMA and bounce and while there wasn't a true retest at that stage, I figured it was decent enough to get in at that point.

So I played the weekly options expiring next week (issued today). Picked up the Sep 24th $11 calls for $1.50 each.

Unfortunately I had a meeting and couldn't wait for a true retest...which did happen just after I left my desk...(of course) so I probably missed out on a dime here...but that's the breaks when you have a stupid day job.

A decent target for this is the 80 period daily upper bollinger band...if it is launching it could hit that by next week...that stands at 13.40...So from my purchase price it will probably net me $1 per contract...66% winner wouldn't be bad at all.

Charts:

Hourly:

15minute:

Daily:

Trades: Short EEP and PCG...both losers

30 SEP-10:
OK enough laziness..I need to update this blog not just for y'all but for myself.

I gotta say that since I turned over most of the trading to the good people at Big Trends...I have gotten lazier about this blog...

Anyway EEP was a looser. my stop was triggered on September 20th for $2.00 per contract. This was an $0.80 per contract loss. Fairly painful. But EEP kept going higher and higher...so I was right to put that trade trigger in during my travels.

Both of these had tripped technical stop points well before I got out of them. In EEP's case I got out soon after the technical stop was

PCG I just got out of today for $4.60 each. For a minor loss of 0.90 per contract (fewer contracts than EEP that's what makes it minor). Across all accounts this was a $630 loss. Easy to bear.

Now I held PCG because when it broke the technical stops on the intraday charts...it never closed the gap on the daily chart, and it never confirmed closing over the 13 day EMA...Also there was a big dividend coming so I knew that once that came through we would have a drop...so patience led me to hold on until the loss was really miniscule.

Charts:
EEP Daily

PCG Daily

14-SEP-10:
I have been trolling for shorts in case the 1130 area holds on the SPX as the top of the range (again). Also being net long is a bit nerve racking, especially as we are headed into resistance and we are a bit overbought.

Anyway EEP and PCG both fit the bill, both had heavy volume downside moves recently, and today both were retesting on %R at the hourly level.

I picked up October $55 puts in EEP for $2.80 each.

I picked up October $50 puts in PCG for $5.50 each.

Both had decent open interest and good bid/ask spreads...not super duper great...but good enough to trade for sure.

Charts:

EEP
4hr:

Hourly:

PCG
4hr:

Hourly:

Trade: Long OPEN...winner

15-SEP-10:
Update...in true trader mentality I decided it was time to get rid of OPEN and take my profits...Sold the contracts today for $9.00 a piece...a profit of $250 per contract....accross all the accounts (9 contracts) that's a profit of $2250..that's more than my wife makes in a month so I am happy with that...I think that's probably a new goal of mine...to make enough on one trade to cover my wife's salary.

This wasn't a homerun but it was a good double... but I have very little faith in this rally at this stage and traders take their profits when they can...OPEN may very well keep running but I am at peace with that. I am trying to think more like a trader and less like an investor...there are multiple opportunities just like OPEN that happen everyday...So I will get on board those and get off board just as quickly.

13-SEP-10:
Decided to enter into a long today despite the market being near the top of its recent range. Some stocks are simply not giving up the goose or (as in OPEN's case) looking like giving up the goose then finding support at key levels and demonstrating retests.

OPEN has been on my side radar for a while because it consistently appears on IBD's Stocks on the Move. While I have missed the ride until this point, today's gap and subsequent sell-off offered a nice opportunity for entry on a very short term basis today.

Today OPEN popped out of the bollinger bands and followed through by confirming in the 2nd hour of trading. Then the fade began and that took us until about 2PM. The hourly chart was showing a %R retest and the 15 minute chart was showing a DMI kiss in the making along with a CCI retest.

I checked this out with more scrutiny because I noticed that the options in the 50-60 strike range had high open interest and the bid/asks were decently tight...also the chart of the option itself was showing a retest on %R as well...

I then watched the action in the underlying itself as it neared the bottom of the day's action...the bid/ask spread was very wide and no business was transacting...within a few minutes they came together and the stock put in a fat green bar on the 15 minute chart.

I pulled the trigger at that point on the October $55 calls for $6.50 each...

A decent target is around $8.80 which is where these options traded earlier today prior to pulling back.

Charts:

1hr:

15 minute:

4hr:

October $55 Call 1hr chart:

UPDATE Trade: Short CVD Equity...winner

UPDATE 9-SEP-10:
Exited this position fully today just based on time in trade, and the need to free up capital for other opportunities, this thing hasn't moved much up or down but the 4hr has started to perk up on the 13 EMA...so that's good enough for me. Covered the 100 shares I had left for $39.

So let's see that's a total profit of $450...not a bad trade for a 1 month holding...still too long for such a "small" profit.

4hr chart:

UPDATE 12-AUG-10:
Trade trigger fired this morning with the rapid drop in CVD. This is now a free trade! Covered 100 shares for $39.68 this morning. Current Cost Basis is now $40.63. It is nice to not worry about loosing money anymore and to also have more buying power free.

6-AUG-10:
Went short 200 shares of CVD in the taxable account. Got filled at $41.59 per share. Stop is $43.41.

This has a massive move down already but it is officially an outside the band retest as of today.

I needed some short exposure and there isn't very much these days that isn't beat up to a pulp. CVD has terrible ratings and is in a terrible group. So I figure despite the move down, there may be further to fall for this puppy.

As always, I hope I am right. But I expect to be wrong.

Charts:

Daily:

4hr:

Trade: Long ARST...loser

7-SEP-10:
I actually exited this position on Friday. After beating earnings ARST didn't go anywhere and got taken down a bit. In any case, my stop was taken out right at the beginning of the day and I had to leave the position. $200 loss.

1hr chart:

2-SEP-10:
I put on a really small position (1 contract Sep $32.5 call for $6.10) in ARST yesterday afternoon...This was based on the recent spike in ARST which came on massive volume. Also all hourly signals fired that fabled day.

ARST reports today after the close which they will divulge details of them putting themselves on the auction block. I am not happy with the open interest in the options at this strike but the delta etc lead me to choose this one.

Anyway it was near the CCI retest low when I picked it up and it is holding that low...

Let's see what happens:

Daily:

1hr:

Update Trade: BKC Long Calls...loser

3-SEP-10:
I wanted to put down my thoughts on this one more time. You may or may not have looked at this chart since I left this trade (but I will post it after this update anyway).

Remember, I entered this trade for various reasons, but the primary reason was that there had been a massive spike in options volume in the October $20 strike that continued over a few days as the underlying got faded. It had matched technical indicators on the hourly chart.

My main mistake on this was probably my choice of trade. The technicals deteriorated rather quickly and i followed my discipline and exited for a small loss. This was prudent for the next few days...and discipline is discipline.

However, what I should have done is go right along with the whale that was picking up these options in the first place. I shoudl have simply defined my risk differently. Instead of getting a higher delta position and stopping myself out if it reached my risk comfort level. I should have simply picked up the out of the money strike calls and put up money I was willing to loose and then just forget about it.

So instead of buying 10 contracts in the 90 delta strike for $1.15...I could have 1. waited for CCI retest, 2. gone with the October $20 strikes paid about 0.60 each contract and bought only 3 or 4 contracts as a "lottery ticket." Simply said..if this whale is right...then I get to ride with him. If he is wrong...then I loose what I would have lost anyway...

I for one will start looking for these types of scenarios a little more closely...the setup here was fairly clear...very high volume in the underlying accompanied by very high volume in the out of the money options.

Anyway here is a chart to enable me to make a shitload of money the next time I see a similar situation...or at the very least...loose the same amount of money.

There are few things more painful than watching a great call fullfill its prophecy WITHOUT being on board and imagining the money you would have made if you were...this is an incredible lesson in matching strategy to the situation and matching risk to reward...but just matching the risk is important enough..

Every trade should begin with the same statement "I am willing to loose X on this trade" I have various ways of making this loss occur and you should always find the way that matches the risk and maximizes the reward at the same time as leaving you in the trade....stay with the trade in this case was more important than the technical breakdown in the stock....because the whales were telegraphing the potential of a takeover...and they were giving you the basic price...If the whale was willing to spend a shitload of money on a strike that was way out of the money...even if it came close to $20 he would profit handsomely.

Anyway its a wonder that the SEC doesn't investigate these types of shenanigans...this was blatantly obvious that someone knew something about this LBO. 

Painful Chart:

27-AUG-10:
This morning BKC violated a retest on CCI. I exited for 0.95 per contract or a loss of 20 cents...$200...I am being very aggressive on defense here on a long that will probably work out...but the market is not really happy looking right now and longs are really hard to justify being in. BKC has a long term down trend in place and fighting that is tough to do.

Anyway I should have waited a little longer to get into this in the first place. Instead of %R retest...I should have waited for a CCI retest. One flaw on this was that DMI difference never went above 30 so that move on Tuesday wasn't confirmed on DMI Diff...so that may have been the thing that should have kept me away. I let the news about the high options volume cloud my judgment on this one...that whale buying calls in October has a longer term time horizon and a lot more money than me...so he wins...

17.25 was support now it is resistance so that's that...had i waited until this morning to enter I would probably still be in this trade and that is a lesson I will probably end up learning with this one...patience and waiting for that CCI retest is the lesson here...when trading the hourly that's what I needed to do.

Chart:

26-AUG-10:
As per last night's post, I noticed that BKC had triggered a buy signal on the hourly...I didn't really look at the news until this morning...from flyonthewall:

Burger King is recently up 44c to $17.33 . BKC October 20 calls have traded 234 times on contract volume of 20,620 contracts, above its open interest of 15,300 contracts. October calls are trading at 50c above its theoretical value of 18c according to Track Data , suggesting traders paying expensive prices on the expectations of an upside move.

Indeed, and the action continues this morning...this time in the September $20 strikes.

Anyway...I waited for a %R retest and got in to the October $17.5 for $1.15 each 10 contracts...Let's see what this whale wants to do with this company.

I am busy with work...post charts later.

Trade: Long XOM...winner

1-SEP-10:
Got the order to get rid of XOM this morning prior to the open and set an order for selling at $2.75...that turned out to be premature as it traded much higher...the order to sell from Extreme was based on yesterdays crappy action in the 15 minute chart...but in hindsight...not sure i want to be placing orders like this right at the open...silly....anyway nothing to write home about 15 cents per contract total $75 profit...

30-AUG-10:
In Extreme today got the signal to open a long position in XOM with the September $27.50 calls. Got in at a cost basis of $2.60 each. For the most part I have 5 contracts...However, I messed up the IRA amount and I wound up with 15 contracts...I may have to cut out on this one before receiving the exit instructions as it is too much of a position to have on...and even the boys at Big Trends are wrong on a few trades.

This is a weak trade already XOM sold off the rest of the day. The only bright spot is that it is barely holding 50 on the hourly %R, and volume was weak today.

Charts:

Daily:

1Hr:

UPDATE Trade: BAC short...Winner

26-AUG-10: Exited the rest of the position at $1.43...total profit on 10 contracts $435...not too shabby.

25-AUG-10:
They said to take half off at $1.50...Order triggered. So new Cost Basis is 0.56 on the remaining position.


23-AUG-10:
Got another alert today from Extreme regarding BAC.

So I am short BAC via the Aug (weeklys) $14 puts.

Entered 10 Contracts for $1.03 each.

This was entered based on the hourly chart showing a retest.

Chart:

Trade: NFLX Long Calls...Loser

24-AUG-10:
Update Looser trade and it was a big one sold for $8 for a loss of $1040. I didn't follow the signal that was saying to exit yesterday and this cost me about $600.

Stupid stupid. Bad Bad. In any case, while I almost made up for it with GOOG, this is unacceptable and I simply should not have traded this given the system was giving only daily signal and the hourly was very range bound.

Lesson learned and this is the first time in a long time that I didn't have the discipline to cut a loss properly.

21-AUG-10:
I was looking at NFLX on Thursday as it had retested on Wednesday and rebounded nicely on Thursday.

Then Friday Headley came across with an alert not to trade but some picks for the coming week (they included long BIDU and Short RIMM). Anyway that gave me the confidence to pull the trigger (silly as that sounds).

Picked up a couple of Sep $120 Calls for $13.20 each (2 contracts). Only in the taxable account. I had chased this a little bit but that's OK. Price's target is $140 on NFLX.

I am thinking that I should have picked these up across all the accounts but I didn't...oh well.

Anyway let's hope for the best here.

Charts:

Daily:

4hr:

Trade: Short GOOG...Winner!

24-AUG-10:
Update...Sold for a cool $1,000 at $24.50...my target for this option was the lower bollinger on the daily chart (I figure this was a decent level of resistance). This level resided at around $255 level in GOOG.

The hourly chart however, says to hold on...but I hit my target and am happy with the results.

23-AUG-10:
I noticed that one thing that Headley and company focus on is liquid stocks with liquid options. They are now moving on the weekly options. This drastically reduces their universe of stocks and, I think it also increases their odds of success with every trade. Its easier to get out at the price you want if price discovery isn't a problem for the instrument...this has been a problem for me...but looking at shorter time frames you get many more opportunities....so its OK to have a limited universe because there are more bars showing opportunities.

Over the weekend, I viewed two videos that came with my options sniper subscription, which are basically coaching videos (without the sales pitch). In the videos Headley discusses the use of CCI as a primary indicator in these volatile markets, particularly its use when it comes to the hourly chart aggregation period.

Anyway the process is the same as with %R, you get a retest and that bar's high is a stop...etc you know the drill.

Looking through the small universe of stocks that have weekly options, I noticed GOOG had set up nicely last week for a fast move down, and today (right now at the 2PM hour)...we have a retest forming on CCI (and a few other indicators) ADX is still green and strong and %R is also retesting.

Anyway its a pretty good actionable trade if you ask me. Now Headley doesn't like these higher priced stocks because it reduces the # of options you have and also the bid/ask spreads are wider...so he probably wont send an alert about this one...but I am putting what I have learned to practice here.

I pulled the trigger on one GOOG Aug 27 $480 put for $14.50 taxable account only.

Chart:

UPDATE Trade: BVF long calls... Winner!

23-AUG-10:
BVF has been good to me, but the profit/loss on this thing hasn't done anything since earnings...the stock has flat lined, and I have held this puppy for over 1 month and a half. I realize that this will move on the imminent FDA approval of VRX, however, I want to free up capital for the rapid moves in the Headley Sniper and Grand Slam services that I have signed up for for the next few months.

BVF has not flashed a true sell on the Daily chart, though it has done so arguably on the 4hr chart. Regardless, I want to take profits on this properly and move on...it has stalled up here and it is at dangerous heights, volume has dried up at these levels...so it can go crashing down just as well...

Cost basis was now $5.95 per contract (thanks to some profit taking previously)...I sold for $10... anyway total profit was in the neighborhood of $1,200...this was a really great trade...and all the option-able accounts benefited.

Charts:
Daily:

4HR:

6-JUL-10:
Short:

Bought 3 CRI Aug 21 2010 35.0 Put @ 8.4

This is one that popped on the scan a few days ago and due to the 4hr chart I thought I was getting in at a good price. Then I checked the market for these puts and there was no open interest. This scared me and I proceeded to try and cancel the orders I had put in...Lucky for me TOS was in a special mood today and it wasn't taking cancellation orders (this type of shenanigans also were present during the May 6th crash by the way)...SO...the orders stayed on and got filled in all but my taxable account...GOOD THING TOO...This is one of those trades where it was almost instantly profitable. The 4 hr chart doesn't really do it justice, but in the beginning of the day this was above my 13 period EMA...this was also scaring me...the volume was light though so I though it was a good short....the liquidity is a concern, but I still think I can turn a profit on these.

Nonetheless. The psychological factor here really upsets me because my taxable account isn't having any fun with this trade. I should not chicken out of trades like this anymore. When I decide to take action I should be satisfied. If anything I should have checked the liquidity previous to entering the orders, but still I would have missed this trade based on that.

One factor is that I had read 2 market forecasts (Big Trends and Noshee?) saying that the bottom may have been put in last week. This skewed my thinking for sure.

Stop is 27.17.

Short:
Bought 5 HS Aug 21 2010 20.0 Put @ 4.7

I picked this up in my taxable account today. This was something that popped on my scan on Friday. A short retest outside the bands. This is my favorite setup. I did this only in the taxable account because in this account I had missed the CRI trade in this account due to my phsycological crapping out...so I went for the next best thing which is shorting HS. I noticed Friday that this was not the only health care insurer that had this retest phenomenon, AET, UNH, also exhibited this behavior. So the sector is in trouble. However, my psychological issues right now are that we are long in the tooth with the downtrend and I fear these moves are nearer to their end than to the beginning. No matter, I am trading based on the setups.

Stop is 15.55. 

Long:
Bought 4 BVF Oct 16 2010 12.5 Call @ 6.8

This was done accross accounts as a hedge against the net Shorts I am in now (besides the above I am short DCTH and CSTR (taxable account only) I have taken big profits on both positions already...so I am holding those for a while longer).

Back to the BVF trade. This thing popped big time and again showed up as a retest outside the bands on the daily chart. The 4hr chart is a bit weaker, however, still strong. If the market has found a bottom, then this is a decent hedge it is a strong stock in a weak market bucking the trend and has successfully retested and is outside the bands...The 4hr has broken the 13 EMA but regained it. This was a tough trade today and I took it because it was near enough to the retest low in price. I didn't get the best price but not too shabby either.

Stop is 18.47

UPDATE Trade: ETP Short via Puts...Winner!

23-AUG-10:
I decided to take my ETP short position off today based on the fact that after 2 days of trading since the gap down...no follow through had occurred (of course as soon as I was out of my position...down it went). On the gap down the other day it also failed to make a new low...which doesn't inspire confidence. I have also seen lots of gap downs based on new offerings turn rapidly higher.

Also, I had seen good profits go bad twice with this position...Besides that I was looking at the hourly chart and it had violated on CCI (this is a new indicator I am looking at based on Headley's Options Sniper program).

In any case, ETP has been good to me and I exited at $3.10 per contract..60 cents...and I generally had 6 contracts accross the accounts...$360 profit...not earth shattering...but good none the less.

Headley also presses the idea of time based stops...so that you can rotate your capital to the next trade that is in the early stages of rallying. So I am starting to exercise this a little more with things that are getting stale. Also left BVF today because of that.

I will say one thing. ETP has NOT flashed an exit based on the 4hr or Daily chart...so arguably this is a premature exit.

Charts:
Daily:

4HR:

10-AUG-10:
I desperately needed short exposure because I was net long and all the retirement accounts can't actually short stocks...problem is, because of liquidity, there are few options out there to suit the needs of these accounts.

Yesterday I was running my scans to see what had retested the day before or what was breaking out. In this case ETP was breaking out but not quite on the daily chart...so I checked the 4 hr chart...breakout had been confirmed...and towards the end of the day it looked like it was retesting...It reached like 19 and change on %R...I figured this was good enough for me as these options are very liquid and had decent bid-ask spreads.

Picked up the September $50 Puts for $2.50 per contract...stop is $2.00. The ask was $2.85 when my order got filled, so I figure to set the trigger at a bid of $1.80...I should get filled at $2.00

Charts:

Daily:

4hr: